Bitcoin Rally Fades as Ceasefire Doubts Emerge

Rejection at key trend line keeps downside risk in play.

Bitcoin jumped above $70,000 on Wednesday, following the announcement of a ceasefire, but the bullish momentum died down soon after. The ceasefire was called a “fragile truce” by U.S. Vice President JD Vance, and the first cracks started to appear very soon, with Iran threatening to keep the gates shut on the Strait of Hormuz after Israel attacked Lebanon.

The Strait of Hormuz was a key element of the negotiations, with U.S. President Trump specifically mentioning it in his TruthSocial post announcing the ceasefire. The entire truce could be in jeopardy if the Strait doesn’t open, and as Trump put it, “[…] subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”

However, Iran is apparently looking to impose a fee of $1 per barrel of oil for each tanker that passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, only about a dozen ships per day pass through the strait, which is a small fraction of the 130 ships that used to cross before the conflict began. Oil tankers can hold between 500,000 and 2 million barrels, which would amount to a hefty overall fee.

The fee of $1 per barrel would be paid in cryptocurrency or Chinese Yuan. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies jumped higher on the news, but the uncertainty triggered by Israel’s strikes on Lebanon erased some of the gains. We will have to see if Iran goes forward with the fee and how the U.S. responds, but one thing is certain: the geopolitical unrest is hurting Bitcoin and the crypto market in general. A resolution to the conflict would bring a new wave of optimism to the markets.

Chart Analysis – BTC/USD

Bitcoin climbed as high as $72,865 on Wednesday after the news regarding the truce and Iran’s fee on oil barrels, but pared gains on Thursday’s trading session. However, there’s a technical side to the move as well: the climb touched a long-term bearish trend line, and the price immediately moved lower.

This is the third clear touch of the trend line, which is drawn from the All-Time High at $126K. If the bulls manage to break it, this would score a major victory and would likely drive the price higher. However, at the moment, the zone around $70K – $71K is very important because a return below it would increase the chances of a move closer to $65K.