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Bitcoin Caught Between Fed Hike Fears and Iran Deal Hopes

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BTC loses ascending channel while $75K support comes into focus

After several failed attempts to break through the resistance at $82K, Bitcoin fell below support and exited the ascending channel. These are clear signs of weakness, which jeopardize the prospect of a more substantial recovery.

On Monday, spot Bitcoin ETFs registered huge outflows, totalling $648 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $448 million, according to data from Coinglass. Since then, the ETF outflows have slowed down, but still, we are talking about smaller outflows, not about bigger inflows, which shows that Bitcoin momentum is stalling.

On Thursday, BTC managed to climb above the $78K level again, with the bulls showing some buying pressure, but this is a modest rally at the moment. The move was fuelled partly by President Trump’s comments about the Middle East conflict. Speaking to reporters, he said: “We’re in the final stages of Iran – we’ll see what happens”, suggesting the US and Iran are nearing a deal. A potential deal would alleviate some of the uncertainty weighing on risk assets, including Bitcoin, and could pave the way for a stronger recovery.

Inflation in the US is moving farther away from the Fed’s 2% target, which makes a rate hike more likely. The FOMC Meeting Minutes released on Wednesday showed that policymakers see energy prices and tariffs as key drivers of inflationary pressure. If the US–Iran war comes to an end and oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to pre-war levels, inflationary pressures from the energy sector would likely ease.

Chart Analysis – BTC/USD

Bitcoin’s price action created a ceiling at $82K, which will be very important for future direction. Since the beginning of May, the bulls tried on several days to move above this barrier but failed, and the price dropped to $76K.

Key support sits at $75K, and currently, there are some timid signs of recovery. The last few red candles have been small and with wicks in their lower part, followed by a move above $78K. The lower Bollinger band also provided support and pushed the price higher. If the bulls manage to take BTC above the middle Bollinger band, we can expect to see a move towards the upper band, which coincides with the resistance at $82K. The battle for that resistance will be very important for medium-term price action, as a break of the previous top would put the bulls in control.

If the current recovery attempt does not yield any results, and $75K support is broken, we may see a deeper correction, possibly towards $71K. The technical side will be secondary to any new developments in the US – Iran war.