The Bitcoin Bull – It’s Ba-aaaack…
The Bitcoin bull market of 2019 has been sleeping. The mighty beast set a high earlier this year and the effort wore it out. The high is just shy of $14,000, the move more than six months in the making, so it is no wonder the market needed to rest. Since setting the high six weeks ago the BTC/USD has been trending sideways, edging lower, and testing support while profit-takers reaped gains and speculators drove volatility. I thought the market might have bottomed a week or so ago but I was early, prior lows were retested, and the signal I thought I saw became stronger. The sell off was played out or nearly so, it was time for a rebound.
Well Folks, Here It Is
Over the last week Bitcoin has quietly been moving higher. The moves are not strong, there are no big percentages involved, and yet now the BTC/USD is sitting above the short-term moving average. More interesting is the technical picture, the price patterns and indicators. Indicators like MACD and stochastic are firing bullish crossovers that support the upward movement in prices. The upward movement in prices confirms support at a key level, a level twice tested, where a double bottom is forming. This combination of indicators, the whole picture, is a solid buy signal and points to short and long-term profits.
The near-term outlook is bullish, BTC/USD is moving higher from support with a solid buy signal in the indicators. Bitcoin is a very technical market, it’s just about the only way to value the coin other than the cost of mining. The cost of mining has been rising but it’s still well below $11,000, we can assume price is this high because of market demand and that demand is on the rise. My first target for resistance is $11,625, my next target is at the recent highs, near $14,000.
The move coincides, not coincidentally, with the soft-launch of Bakkt. Bakkt began testing its physically settled Bitcoin futures contracts just over a week ago and that means guaranteed buying equal to the volume of trading on the exchange. I suspect when Bakkt opens its doors to the trading community there will be a surge in Bitcoin volume. Longer term, Bitcoin prices will be supported by the Halvening that is scheduled for next spring. The Halvening will cut the supply of BTC in half and greatly impact the supply/demand dynamic. Litecoin halves in two days (from publication), I expect to see it’s price confirm a reversal and return to uptrend any day now.