The Halving: Not Half As Exciting As It Could Have Been
Well, the halving came and went without much fanfare. In the two weeks+ since the event BTC/USD has moved up, down and sideways to trend within a narrowing range. While the action seems listless, the stochastic outlook is still quite bullish. The market seems to moving randomly between a falling resistance and rising support that suggests the bulls are still in control. The two main factors I am looking at, not three, are that trend is bullish, the short-term moving average is acting as rising support, and resistance doesn’t seem to be well organized.
What this adds up to in my book is a consolidation. A consolidation with an uptrend that should lead to higher prices in the soon-to-be-experience future. The most recent action is supportive of this idea as well. Price action is bouncing from the moving average for a second time post-halving and confirming new support at a previous resistance line. The indicators are my only concern at this time, both MACD and stochastic are bearish but there are mitigating factors.
In the case of MACD, the momentum peaks are consistent with winding markets and set up to swing back to bull side as price action moves higher. In the case of stochastic, the stochastic is set up to fire a bullish signal as well and when, if, it does the market is sure to react. Resistance may be hit in the range of $9,750 but firm resistance will be met at $10,000. If that level can be surpassed BTC/USD value will elevate to the price range, somewhere in the vicinity of $11,000 to $12,000.
Market Dominance And ETH 2.0
In terms of market dominance, BTC maintains the top position at 66%. Market dominance has fallen fractionally since the halving but not in a significant way, only a percentage point or two, no more. Ethereum maintains the second position with a distant 8.5% so there is little fear of BTC losing its spot. The hashrate, however, has fallen off sharply in the last two weeks as miners begin moving to more profitable tokens. The hashrate is likely to begin stabilizing soon though because demand in other tokens will only increase their difficulty rates.
Speaking of ETH. The Ethereum 2.0 target launch is still on the calander for July of this year. The launch will begin the switch to PoS mining versus PoW and that is expected to spark a major price rally. PoS mining means the miner has to put up an investment, a stake, to guarantee transactions through their node. They are, in effect, setting up a small banking node that will earn fees on transactions that are “staked”. What that means for the market is miners and prospective miners/investors will have to buy ETH to make their stakes. We all know what happens when there is a rush to buy an asset.