Bitcoin Rally Stalls at $75K as War Risks Persist

Weak momentum and rejection signals point to pullback     

Bitcoin and the overall crypto market remain tightly correlated to the U.S. – Iran war and all the developments, rumors, and negotiations that take place. After the initial round of negotiations failed last weekend, markets are feeling optimistic again, preparing for a second round of peace talks.

After U.S. Vice President JD Vance left Islamabad without a deal with Iran, President Trump instituted a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, and tensions escalated, sending risk assets lower. In a TruthSocial post, he wrote: “Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” He added: “At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen […]”, referencing probably the toll imposed on oil shipments by Iran.

Earlier in the week, Bitcoin breached the $75K barrier, reaching a high at $76,120 but then stalling for a couple of days. The main incentive for the climb was again the Middle East conflict, specifically the hope of an extension of the ceasefire and another attempt to reach a diplomatic end to the war. The main contention points are the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program. It’s safe to assume that until we see a clear resolution to the war, Bitcoin and the crypto market will not pick a clear direction.

Bitcoin sees renewed institutional interest.

On the bright side, Bitcoin ETFs have been active lately, seeing steady inflows, according to Coinglass data. Four out of the last 5 days have been positive, with inflows fluctuating between $186 million and $411 million per day. The only negative day registered $291 million in outflows. ETF inflows are always a positive sign for Bitcoin and perhaps even more now, because they happen despite the uncertainty and risk aversion generated by the U.S. – Iran war.

Chart Analysis – BTC/USD

Bitcoin has now returned inside the ascending channel that was breached in late March and is trading outside the range that confined it since early February ($65K – $71K). But while these are good signs, it looks like the resistance at $75K is too strong, at least for the time being.

We saw a rejection at $75K on March 17 and one more this week on Tuesday. In fact, Bitcoin has been flirting with this resistance for most of the week, touching it or coming very close to it. The last daily candles show signs of indecision and even rejection (long wicks in their upper parts); also, volume has been decreasing.

These are not signs of a healthy rally (despite a very nice break of $71K), so we can expect to see a pullback, especially if the RSI reaches overbought and shows bearish divergence.