Bitcoin Weighed by War Risks but Clarity Act Hopes Rise

$65K support under pressure as bearish setup builds

The week has been a roller-coaster thus far, with Bitcoin and the entire crypto market driven almost exclusively by rumors surrounding the end of the Middle East war. Optimism was high in the first part of the week, with U.S. President Trump suggesting that a diplomatic end to the war may be near.

However, on Wednesday, Trump addressed the nation in a televised speech and said that the US would hit Iran “extremely hard over the next 2 to 3 weeks” and that the Strait of Hormuz would open up naturally. The speech sent oil prices above $100 per barrel and cryptocurrencies lower, erasing all gains made earlier during the week.

Despite the military threats, Trump also mentioned ongoing discussions regarding a ceasefire, so there is still hope of a diplomatic resolution. Speaking about the Strait of Hormuz, he said that it will open naturally, as Iran tries to rebuild its economy by selling oil, which will “resume flowing, and the gas prices will rapidly come back down. Stock prices will rapidly go back up”.

When that happens, the crypto market will likely respond positively because, as we’ve seen thus far, crypto prices have been tightly correlated with the Middle East war.

CLARITY Act Progress

While the war weighs on risk assets, there’s some sunshine coming from the side of the Clarity Act, although at this time it’s just rumors. During an appearance on Fox Business on Thursday, April 2, Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal said he expects progress on the Clarity Act within 48 hours.

The markets have been expecting some positive news for a long time, and this could be it. If banks and crypto companies reach a compromise on stablecoin rewards, the legislation could finally move forward, likely triggering a crypto rally. However, it remains unclear what information Paul Grewal is relying on when suggesting progress could be made within 48 hours.

Chart Analysis – BTC/USD

Bitcoin is on the verge of a breakdown, and the line in the sand is $65K. After exiting the ascending channel in late March, the price tested the line from below, which resulted in a rejection. The failure to re-enter the channel (part of a bearish flag pattern) likely means that the sellers are still in control.

If Bitcoin fails to hold above $65K support, it is probably headed towards the previous bottom, at $59,900 (February 2026). After that, the next possible support is located around $53K – $55K, which was a bottom in August 2024.

For any upside movement to gain traction, Bitcoin will need some help from the macro scene, either an end to the Middle East war, progress on the Clarity Act, or both.