U.S. Government Resumes Operations. How Will Crypto Respond?

Bitcoin at a Critical Juncture: $100K Shattered. Are We Dealing With a False Break?

Crypto markets were lifted mid-week as the longest government shutdown in modern American history officially ended on Wednesday, November 12. President Trump signed into law the bill passed earlier by the House of Representatives, thus resuming government activities after a 43-day pause.

The President said, “The federal government will now resume normal operations” and that the newly signed legislation will “get our country working again”. Markets will likely regain some stability after the government’s reopening, but uncertainty still lingers because key data may never see the light of day. According to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reports for October will likely never be released. She also added that economic data “will be permanently damaged”.

Even if the markets do not get October’s inflation and jobs data, the restart is definitely a breath of fresh air and a welcome change. However, the crypto market was not overwhelmingly impressed, and Bitcoin failed to find its footing above $106K.

Crypto ETF Buzz May Spark the Next Leg of the Uptrend

Bitcoin ETF flows are turning positive, with $524 million on Tuesday, possibly due to sentiment being lifted by the end of the government shutdown that came a day later. Since their inception, spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a good indicator of the market’s bias, so the fact that funds are flowing into them again could mean that a move higher will come.

Staying in the ETF realm, there’s good news for Ripple’s XRP as Canary Capital launched the first spot XRP ETF. Nasdaq has officially approved the ETF to begin trading on Thursday under the ticker $XRPC. It’s a huge milestone for the “XRP Army,” but at this time, it’s too early to tell how appealing it is to investors in the long term. However, the first day registered $245 million of inflows. More than 20 XRP ETF listings have been submitted and are awaiting approval in the coming weeks.

Chart Analysis – BTC/USD

Bitcoin is currently trading at $97,100, and is down almost 5% percent in the last 7 days. Earlier in the week, we saw a failed attempt to break the bearish trend line drawn from the August high, and then the bears broke $100K.

This looks to be a breakdown and could mean that BTC is headed towards $95K or even lower. The RSI is very close to oversold territory, and bullish divergence is starting to form. There’s a chance this is a false break, but that may be just wishful thinking. Unless the move below $100K is quickly reversed, we are dealing with a true break of major support.