Trade Court Blocks Trump Tariffs. Markets Almost Unfazed
BTC Hits a Snag, Overbought RSI Triggers Temporary Correction
After printing a fresh All-Time High (ATH) at $112K, Bitcoin failed to capitalize on the momentum and retreated below the previous peak at $109,350. It looks like the tariff uncertainty is getting the best of market participants… again. Negotiations between the Trump administration and its major counterparts are stalling or advancing at a snail’s pace, with threats of higher tariffs made by all sides.
But you can only cry “wolf” so many times and now there is a new term emerging: the TACO trade. TACO stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out” and it refers to the fact that President Trump (at least thus far) threatens huge trade levies just to back out sometime later, either instituting some kind of pause or dropping the tariffs to much lower levels. Trump said, referring to the matter “It’s called negotiation”.
And speaking of tariffs, the U.S. Court of International Trade, recently blocked some of Trump’s tariffs, ruling that they violate a law issued in 1977. According to the law, called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the President does not have unlimited power to impose tariffs.
The Trump administration is likely to appeal the decision. If this is the course they take, the case will head to the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, and possibly to the Supreme Court after that. While this may be just a hiccup in Trump’s negotiations, it’s still a step back and may have unknown effects.
Chart Analysis – BTC/USD
Bitcoin’s week was rather bad thus far, with market participants quickly taking profits as soon as the previous All-Time High was breached. The fresh ATH looked like it scared investors away, instead of boosting demand and sending the market into a buying frenzy.
The RSI is dipping with intent now, coming off overbought levels but it may create a bullish divergence (if the RSI creates a lower low and the price prints a higher low). The dip we’re seeing right now is normal after a strong and extended rally, so as long as a major support is not broken, the bias is still bullish.
There is an S/R level of interest at $106,800, which was broken Thursday. If the price action stays below it, BTC can find some buy orders at $102,600 and slightly below. The key price/support is located at $100,000, which is a BRN (big round number) and a historical milestone. However, despite its major psychological implications, $100K has not been a major technical level (i.e. the price has not reacted strongly to it in the past).
