BTC Rallies on Fed Leadership Buzz. Moon Rocket Fuelling Up?

Bitcoin Prints Higher Low After Bear Exhaustion. $100K Next?

The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, signalling that the Fed must step in and cut the rates to ease the pressure and allow the economy to recover. That’s good for Bitcoin! But Bitcoin doesn’t really care.

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report came out on Wednesday and showed that the private sector cut 32K jobs, while analysts had anticipated it would add 5K. Since the government-issued NFP is nowhere to be seen due to the historic shutdown, the ADP report is all the Fed can use to gauge the health of the job market. The government-issued NFP will come out on December 16, only after the interest rate meeting (also, the accuracy of the data may be skewed).

At the time of writing, the CME FedWatch tool shows an 89.2% probability of a rate cut. A week ago, before the ADP release, the probability was 83.4% – still high, but it was significantly increased by the jobs data.

New Fed Leadership?

At first glance, one would assume that Bitcoin climbed together with the probability of a rate cut, right after Wednesday’s ADP announcement. But actually, Bitcoin slightly dropped at that time (visible on an hourly chart).

The significant climb occurred Tuesday, and for a different reason: talks surrounding the nomination of the next Federal Reserve Chair. Leading the race is White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.

He is known to have a stance that favors rate cuts, and that his views are aligned with President Trump’s economic views. This means that there would be less friction between the Fed and the Trump administration, but at the same time, it raises questions about the independence of the Fed within the government.

A Fed Chair that is willing to cut rates at a faster pace is bullish for crypto, but that’s not the only thing: Hassett was previously a Coinbase advisor and holds a significant amount of COIN stock. With him at the Fed’s helm, we will probably see a crypto-friendly environment, but of course, the Fed Chair cannot single-handedly set the rate wherever he wants. Rate decisions are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), but the Chair is… well, the Chair.

Chart Analysis – BTC/USD

After weeks of waiting, Bitcoin finally showed a higher low. Since reaching its ATH above $126K, BTC has been constantly printing lower lows and lower highs, but Monday’s low is the first higher low. This happened after a rare oversold RSI (the RSI was last oversold in February of the current year).

We can say that the previous high was also broken, but at the time of writing, this is not a significant break. On November 28, Bitcoin reached a high of $93,091, and on this Wednesday, it reached $94,172 but then erased some of the gains. Technically, yes, we do have a higher high, but $1K is not a lot for Bitcoin, and at least at press time, the price is below the previous high.

The main thing to watch for clues about a full-scale reversal is the bearish trend line drawn from the All-Time High. If the bulls manage to break it and close a daily candle above it, we are looking at increased chances of a move above $100K.