Uptober Starts With a Bang! New ATH in Sight?
Bitcoin Faces Resistance Cluster. Are the Bulls Committed Enough?
Historically, the month of October is kind to Bitcoin and the crypto market in general, hence the nickname “UPtober”. And it looks like this October lives up to its nickname, at least thus far, albeit we are still in its early days. On Thursday, October 2, Bitcoin pushed as high as $121,100, which is pretty wild considering that it was changing hands at $109,500 just a few days ago, on September 28.
The ADP Non-Farm Employment report released on Wednesday showed that the private sector lost 32K jobs in September, as opposed to an estimate of 52K jobs gained. The previous report was also drastically revised lower, from an initial 54K jobs to -3K. This shows that the U.S. jobs market is struggling and solidifies the prospect of additional rate cuts this year.
The most important jobs report, the Non-Farm Payrolls, is still ahead of us, scheduled for release later today. However, due to the U.S. government shutdown, the data may be delayed. The other releases of the week proceeded as planned, but it’s unclear whether the NFP will be on time or not.
At the time of writing, the probability of another rate cut in October is 99%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The probability of a cut at the December meeting is also very high, at 87%. Lower interest rates favour risky assets such as cryptocurrencies, so we might be in for a bullish end of the year.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs have started to attract inflows again, showing increased investor interest. Bitcoin ETFs saw $518 million in inflows on Monday, followed by $429 million on Tuesday and $675 million on Wednesday. Ethereum ETFs brought in lesser inflows but still a major increase from previous days, which saw outflows.
Chart Analysis – BTC/USD
After touching the lower Bollinger Band on September 25, Bitcoin had a streak of explosive bullish days, and at the time of writing it is trading very close to the $120K resistance. The rebound was accompanied by healthy volume and growing institutional interest, which makes the latest move more than just a knee-jerk reaction.
The low of around $108,500, reached in late September, looked like a break of the bullish channel, but price action in the following days showed that it was a fake out. This opens the door again for a push into the $124.5K ATH and possibly higher, towards the upper barrier of the channel.
There are a few things to consider, though: Bitcoin reached the upper Bollinger Band, there is strong resistance at $120K, and the RSI might soon cross into overbought territory. This doesn’t necessarily mean that a reversal is coming, but the bearish factors shouldn’t be overlooked.
