Bitcoin Rally Stalls as ETF Outflows Hit $500M

BTC tests $82K support after failing twice to break above $87K.

After a double top at $87,000, Bitcoin retreated to the key zone around $82,000, which puts the OG crypto at a crossroads that may determine the next major move. After the initial push to $87,000, BTC retreated close to $82,000, but it did not touch the level, and then it moved higher again to challenge the local high.

The fact that we have a double top at $87,000 could indicate a failure to sustain a serious rally. The move back into the $82,000 area happened as spot Bitcoin ETFs registered almost $500 million worth of outflows on Wednesday, October 7, according to data from Coinglass. A price rebound followed by steady ETF inflows (not just a single day) would indicate that buying pressure is back.

Bitcoin’s weakness spread across the broader crypto market, leaving most of the major altcoins in the red. Ethereum (ETH) lost 5.7% over the last 7 days, while Ripple’s XRP shed more than 6%. A stronger US Dollar added to the decline, and Treasury yields held near 5.3%, increasing the appeal of interest-bearing assets and keeping investors away from speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

The FOMC Meeting Minutes released on Wednesday highlighted inflationary risks, but overall the document did not reveal any clues that point to an October rate hike. At the time of writing, the odds for such a move are only 20% according to the CME FedWatch tool. However, the probability of a rate increase in December sits around 70%. So, even if the Fed pauses rate hikes this month, there’s still a high probability of another increase by year’s end, which puts pressure on risk assets.

Chart Analysis – BTC/USD

Bitcoin is testing the very important level at $82,000. This level acted as very strong resistance, but also as support after it was broken to the upside in late September. If the price closes a strong daily candle below it, we can expect to see further downside, possibly moving into the low at $75,000. However, before that level, the bulls may find some support at the 50-day Moving Average (blue line), which sits just below $82,000.

A possible rebound at the current level or at the moving average could open the door for another move towards $87,000. The double top may prove difficult for the bulls to break, but if that happens, it would put the buyers in control. Such a scenario could result in a stronger move up and a definitive end of the downtrend.