How Will ETH/USD Respond?
On January 13, 2018, Ethereum hit its All-Time High (ATH), trading at 1,432.88 against the US Dollar (data from CoinMarketCap). That day corresponded to a previous ATH in Google search term popularity for the word “Ethereum”. Today, January 8, 2021, according to Google Trends, the searches for “Ethereum” have hit a new ATH, but Ethereum itself is trading at $1,212.34 according to CoinMarketCap.
Google Analytics search scores for a particular coin or crypto term have been known as a folk metric, a way to determine people’s interest for a certain coin, and often times this interest translated into a wave of buying, thus higher prices.
If we follow this train of thought and we look at Ethereum, we can assume that its price will hit a new All-Time High very soon. The last time that Google search interest peaked, ETH looked unstoppable and was trading at its ATH. Now we have a new ATH in Google searches and ETH/USD is only $200 away from its ATH. The only question is: can we be certain that a Google search ATH will generate an Ethereum ATH? No, we cannot be certain but in my opinion, the probability is high.
Chart Analysis – ETH/USD
Looking at the Weekly chart below, we can see that Ethereum’s last massive bull-run occurred in late 2017 and the first weeks of 2018. Unfortunately, that sequence was soon followed by a massive drop that erased all gains within a few months.
The current bull-run looks similar, if not stronger (note that in 2017 the pair had a few bearish weeks and the climb wasn’t as steep), so let’s not forget the old saying “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it“, and let’s keep in mind that after a massive spike, a big drop happened.
Furthermore, take a look at the position of the RSI: in 2017 it was only slightly overbought but now it’s even higher than last time, although the current price is lower. This is a bearish divergence, which signals a possible drop in price (possible, not probable) but if the previous ATH is surpassed, this divergence will automatically disappear (we will have a higher high for price and a higher high for the RSI).
Bottom line is that we have bearish and bullish signs at the same time: on one hand, we have a very strong climb, with massive candles, increasing volume, and an ATH for Google “Ethereum” searches (which last time coincided with an ETH/USD ATH). On the other hand, we have price action that looks very similar to late 2017 – early 2018 when Ethereum crashed. This doesn’t mean that a new ATH will not be reached, but expect some sort of pullback after that happens.